“Fit body, calm mind, a house full of love. These are things that cannot be bought – they must be earned.” – Naval Ravikant, entrepreneur and author
I graduated from high school in 2000. We were amid the internet boom (and soon to follow bust). There was a wide range of opinions on how the internet would change commerce.
In June 1998, Paul Krugman, economist & professor, wrote an article in the Red Herring…
“The growth of the Internet will slow drastically … By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machines.”
Jim Clark, the driving force behind Netscape, thought the commercialization of the internet was a no-brainer…
“Commercialization of the Internet is as inevitable as the sun coming up tomorrow.”
The same dynamic is happening today. There are smart people that think AI replaces every human job. There are smart people that think AI is a great tool, but are skeptical of the heavy capital expenditure requirements, energy use, and data center discontent that is growing across the country.
I don’t know who is right, however, disruptive technology can make you question everything.
This is a collection of big ideas I can’t shake. Many of these ideas have been influenced by my Mt. Rushmore of writers, authors, and thought leaders that have been influential on my journey, i.e. Morgan Housel, James Clear, Shane Parrish, Sahil Bloom, and Naval Ravikant.
I’ve put my own spin on many of these ideas to formulate a collection of thoughts on the future of work, investing, technology, and advice to my kids on how to live a fulfilling life.
Future of Work
I know many young folks insist on working from home full-time. I think this is a mistake. Face time with clients, colleagues, and mentors is priceless. They say AI will replace human jobs; do you really want to fast track that by removing the relationship component from your work life?
Regarding AI, I can’t envision a world where robots take over human jobs. Is that good for society? Think about every election cycle from the beginning of time; wages, jobs, the economy, employment, standard of living are top of mind. We are suddenly going to be okay with a handful of technology companies displacing human work? Many of us derive our sense of purpose and identity from our work. They say universal basic income is going to fill the gap, leaving us free to do what we want. The U.S. government just eclipsed $38 trillion in debt, where does the money come from?
I think there’s going to be a consumer and investor backlash against companies that replace human workers with robots. “I’m not shopping at XYZ company, they keep firing people and replacing them with impersonal robots.”
I don’t know what happened after COVID, but reliability, customer experience, and professional standards have gone out the window. In my opinion, one can do well for themselves by doing simple things well; do what you say you’re going to do, return phone calls & emails the same business day, be on time, be the person that shows up and does the work.
During a typical workday, we are hit with a bombardment of tasks, emails, texts, phone calls, and requests. They aren’t all urgent. Ask yourself, “what’s important now?” You’ll find a sense of relief tackling the highest order task first.
For aspiring entrepreneurs that haven’t quite made the leap or feel trapped in their corporate gig; just start. You don’t need to have everything figured out. Start stacking up small wins, day in and day out. You’ll be amazing at how far you can get just by starting. Lean into action. Don’t tell people what you are going to do, just do it.
Advice to My Kids (and aspiring young people)
Everyone you encounter is fighting a hard battle. Lead with kindness, patience, and understanding.
Develop a love for reading. I don’t think I have met a successful person that wasn’t an avid reader.
You will likely stress over where to live, potential career paths, and money. These things are worth careful consideration. However, the most important life decision you will make is who you marry. Marrying the right person is the ultimate life cheat code.
Morgan Housel talks about the idea of a reverse obituary. Imagine what people would say about you at your funeral. Imagine what your obituary would say. Live your life to embody how you would want the people you care about to remember you.
Learn how to think independently. If you share your opinion on immigration, someone shouldn’t be able to guess your stance on abortion.
Comparison is the thief of joy. Stay off social media. Compare yourself to who you were last week, last month, or last year rather than a bunch of strangers on the internet.
In social situations, so many people try their hardest to be interesting. This puts unnecessary pressure on us to make an impression. This can lead to anxiety, uneasiness, and awkward conversations. Instead, focus on being interested in others. Ask questions, follow-up questions, and listen to their answers. Have you ever disliked someone that showed a genuine interest in you?
If you can look someone in the eye, have good posture, and have natural conversations, you will have a competitive advantage in the digital age. Too many children and young people struggle with conversation because they’ve been raised by a tablet or phone screen.
Never argue with someone that is incapable of changing their mind. I’ve saved so much time and energy by saying, “you’re probably right,” and ending the conversation.
Being able to change your mind is a superpower.
It’s okay not to have an opinion or position. Saying “I don’t know,” is a sign of intelligence.
Find an outdoor hobby that gets you off your phone. Touch the grass, go for walks without your phone, let your mind wander. It’s okay to be bored from time to time.
Sahil Bloom talks about taking care of one’s body in a thought-provoking way, “Will you be dancing at your 80th birthday party?” Treat your body like a house you’ll live in for the next 80+ years.
Never use your phone at a social gathering. Nothing is more baffling than a group of family or friends out to dinner and everyone is staring at their phone. Phones somehow get a pass, but think how rude it would be to start reading a book or doing a crossword puzzle when out at a group dinner.
Future of Financial Advice
We use AI for investment research, unpacking risk metrics for prospective client portfolios, tax planning, reading a complex trust, contract, or compliance document. We utilize an AI note taking tool during client & prospect meetings. We’ve also used AI to develop our own sequence of return risk, cost of investing, and tax-equivalent yield calculators.
In my opinion, the future of advice will be driven by credentialed human beings powered by technology (including AI).
Would you rather have a novice using AI to run a financial plan, build an investment portfolio, and provide estate/tax advice? Or someone with 25 years of financial services experience using AI to run a financial plan, build an investment portfolio, and provide estate/tax advice?
The virtually uninterrupted bull run in U.S. stocks has created a cohort of young financial planners that think the investing piece doesn’t matter. Just pile into a bunch of low-cost ETFs and buy & hold. I’ve heard of much worse strategies and for folks earning, saving, and with time on their side. However, for retirees, I think leading with planning and dismissing the investment piece as “solved” is a recipe for disaster. I remember during the financial crisis in 2008-2009, financial institutions were failing, markets were crashing, and the world was melting down. A financial advisor leading with financial planning would have been laughed out of the room. The modern advisor should be well equipped with financial planning and investment management expertise.
I don’t understand how people still work with Wall Street firms that openly work against them in the form of high fees, conflicts of interest, tax mismanagement, and perverse incentives. Why would you trust your life’s work with companies that lead the world in corporate fines for working against their clients?
What are some big ideas that you can’t shake? Shoot us a note at insight@pureportfolios.com.