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Bear Market Feedback is Gold

“Investors’ mental models tend to be simple, based on recent history, an extrapolation of trends, and an overreliance on frameworks that worked recently.” – Dan Rasmussen, The Humble Investor Most people set goals with a desired outcome in mind. Getting...
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Global Markets are Telling a Different Tariff Story

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Global Markets are Telling a Different Tariff Story

“Tariffs are a tax on business that get eaten by the consumer.” – Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism We won’t pretend the headline risk of tariff…
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Fully Invested, Light on Cash

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Fully Invested, Light on Cash

“My most important discovery—a finding that changed the course of my career—is that the future is far less predictable than most investors think. The best…
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Err on the Side

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Err on the Side

“Most people make their investment decisions on the basis of an unreliable hodgepodge of half-baked logic, biases, hunches, emotion, and vague fantasies or fears about…
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No One Learns Anything in a Bull Market

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No One Learns Anything in a Bull Market

“Mistakes present a choice: whether to update your ideas, or ignore the failures they’ve produced and keep believing what you’ve always believed.” – Shane Parrish,…
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Will Outsized U.S. Stock Returns Continue?

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Will Outsized U.S. Stock Returns Continue?

“When something is on the pedestal of popularity, the risk of a decline is high. When people assume — and price in — an expectation…
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Tis the Season for Wall Street Forecasting VIII

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Tis the Season for Wall Street Forecasting VIII

“A decade ago, I made a goal to read more history and fewer forecasts. It was one of the most enlightening changes of my life.”…
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Reckless Government Spending: How it Could Impact Your Investments

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Reckless Government Spending: How it Could Impact Your Investments

“We are going to be broke really quickly unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues.” –  Paul Tudor Jones, hedge fund manager…
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Could Future S&P 500 Returns Be Lower?

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Could Future S&P 500 Returns Be Lower?

“History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain Anyway you slice it, the S&P 500 is historically expensive. The conundrum for those waiting…
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Consumer Sentiment and S&P Returns

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Consumer Sentiment and S&P Returns

“There is a very thin line between confidence and arrogance.” – Adam Peaty, Olympic swimmer What comes first, confidence or success? It’s a question I’ve…
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