“Tariffs are a tax on business that get eaten by the consumer.” – Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism We won’t pretend the headline risk of tariff…
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Global Markets are Telling a Different Tariff Story
Bear Market Feedback is Gold
“Investors’ mental models tend to be simple, based on recent history, an extrapolation of trends, and an overreliance on frameworks that worked recently.” – Dan Rasmussen, The Humble Investor Most people set goals with a desired outcome in mind. Getting...
read moreFully Invested, Light on Cash
“My most important discovery—a finding that changed the course of my career—is that the future is far less predictable than most investors think. The best…
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Err on the Side
“Most people make their investment decisions on the basis of an unreliable hodgepodge of half-baked logic, biases, hunches, emotion, and vague fantasies or fears about…
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No One Learns Anything in a Bull Market
“Mistakes present a choice: whether to update your ideas, or ignore the failures they’ve produced and keep believing what you’ve always believed.” – Shane Parrish,…
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Will Outsized U.S. Stock Returns Continue?
“When something is on the pedestal of popularity, the risk of a decline is high. When people assume — and price in — an expectation…
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Tis the Season for Wall Street Forecasting VIII
“A decade ago, I made a goal to read more history and fewer forecasts. It was one of the most enlightening changes of my life.”…
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Reckless Government Spending: How it Could Impact Your Investments
“We are going to be broke really quickly unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues.” – Paul Tudor Jones, hedge fund manager…
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Could Future S&P 500 Returns Be Lower?
“History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain Anyway you slice it, the S&P 500 is historically expensive. The conundrum for those waiting…
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Consumer Sentiment and S&P Returns
“There is a very thin line between confidence and arrogance.” – Adam Peaty, Olympic swimmer What comes first, confidence or success? It’s a question I’ve…
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