“The price of equity is determined in the same way that the price of everything is determined – via forces of supply and demand.” Jesse…
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The Best Predictor of Stock Returns is Amazingly Simple
Markets After Major Geopolitical Events
“The world changes. This is the biggest problem in markets.” – Bill Miller, former chairmen of Legg Mason Capital Management T. Rowe Price, founder of the Baltimore-based investment firm that bears his name, wrote an essay in 1937 titled, “Change...
read moreThe Biggest Risk to New Retirees
“Consider two degenerate gamblers flipping a quarter for $100 per flip. One of the gamblers has heads and the other has tails for the duration…
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What’s in a Bear Market?
“I’m an optimist, both as a person and an investor. It’s a big mistake to be pessimistic as long as we have a viable civilization…
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Higher Capital Gains Tax and Stock Returns
“You watch…taxes are going to go up and the market will tank.” – I’ve been told this 5x in the past week. Well, that seems…
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No Such Thing as Passive Investing
“This is the single worst time to be a passive investor since they started passive investments. The S&P 500 index is highly likely to not…
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Spectacular Implosion
“How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” – Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises. It takes talent to lose $8 billion dollars…
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The Identity Leak
“Keep your identity small.” – Paul Graham, famous investor. I was an average high school basketball player. Good enough to get on the court, but…
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Not Buying What the Fed is Selling
The Fed was on autopilot. Its forward guidance made clear that market participants could set their watches to four interest rate hikes in 2018. That’s…
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The New Age Investor
“Behind the recent surge in retail investing is a younger, often new-to-investing, and aggressive cohort not afraid to employ leverage.” Deutsche Bank strategists Jim Reid…
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