White-hot inflation. Rising interest rates. Tanking bond prices. The popular consensus is that investors should abandon their bond allocation. It’s a tidy narrative but deserves…
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Does it Still Make Sense to Own Bonds?
The Fed’s Odd Rate Cut
“There’s nothing people love more than a Federal Reserve joke.” – Adam McKay, American screenwriter After months of speculation, markets have fully priced in a September rate cut. CME FedWatch puts the odds at nearly 100%. Beyond the soaring stock...
read moreWhat’s the Bullish Case for Stocks?
“Tell someone that everything will be ok and they’ll shrug you off. Tell someone they’re in danger and they’ll hang on your every word.” Morgan…
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What Are the Odds of a U.S. Recession?
“Being scared of everything is a symptom of being addicted to comfort.” – Orange Book, @orangebook on Twitter Post World War II, the U.S. has…
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Checking Up on Pandemic Darlings
“What a year this week has been.” – unknown A handful of stocks couldn’t miss. The pandemic changed the way we did everything overnight. Obscure…
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How to Solve the Inflation Problem
“Anyway you calculate it, inflation is WAY above the Fed’s target because of high demand.” Cullen Roche, Discipline Funds The Fed will attempt to kill…
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Waiting for the “All-Clear” Investment Signal
“If you want to make the wrong decision, ask everyone.” – Naval Ravikant, author and investor I want to wait and see what happens with…
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How High Can Bond Yields Go?
“It’s not a normal condition to have interest rates at zero.” – Lloyd Blankfein, former Goldman Sachs CEO The Fed has charted the path forward…
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What Goes Up, Must Come Down
“All past market declines look like opportunities, all future market declines look like risks.” – Morgan Housel, author and investor Watching the stock market tank…
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Throw Away the Old Playbook
“Much of the confusion about the current state of the economy has its origin in people trying to apply classic business-cycle analysis to COVID-19 macro…
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