“Inflation is when you pay $15 for a $10 haircut you used to get for $5 when you had hair.” – Sam Ewing, retired professional…
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What the Treasury Market is Saying About Inflation
Bear Market Feedback is Gold
“Investors’ mental models tend to be simple, based on recent history, an extrapolation of trends, and an overreliance on frameworks that worked recently.” – Dan Rasmussen, The Humble Investor Most people set goals with a desired outcome in mind. Getting...
read moreShrinking Life Cycle of an S&P 500 Company
“I’d rather be partly great than entirely useless.” – Neal Shusterman, American author & writer. Let’s face it, it’s fun to buy individual stocks. Maybe…
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The Best Predictor of Stock Returns is Amazingly Simple
“The price of equity is determined in the same way that the price of everything is determined – via forces of supply and demand.” Jesse…
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What’s in a Bear Market?
“I’m an optimist, both as a person and an investor. It’s a big mistake to be pessimistic as long as we have a viable civilization…
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Higher Capital Gains Tax and Stock Returns
“You watch…taxes are going to go up and the market will tank.” – I’ve been told this 5x in the past week. Well, that seems…
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No Such Thing as Passive Investing
“This is the single worst time to be a passive investor since they started passive investments. The S&P 500 index is highly likely to not…
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Spectacular Implosion
“How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” – Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises. It takes talent to lose $8 billion dollars…
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The Identity Leak
“Keep your identity small.” – Paul Graham, famous investor. I was an average high school basketball player. Good enough to get on the court, but…
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Not Buying What the Fed is Selling
The Fed was on autopilot. Its forward guidance made clear that market participants could set their watches to four interest rate hikes in 2018. That’s…
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