“There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.” – John Kenneth Balbraith, economist Hot chocolate….
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Tis the Season for Wall Street Forecasting Pt. VI
Bear Market Feedback is Gold
“Investors’ mental models tend to be simple, based on recent history, an extrapolation of trends, and an overreliance on frameworks that worked recently.” – Dan Rasmussen, The Humble Investor Most people set goals with a desired outcome in mind. Getting...
read moreTop 5 Pure Portfolios’ Blogs: Turkey Edition
“Thanksgiving is a joyous invitation to shower the world with love and gratitude.” – Amy Leigh Mercree We take a break from our regular blog…
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Avoiding the Extremes
“You should obsess over risks that do permanent damage & care little about risks that do temporary harm, but the opposite is more common.” –…
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Mid-Terms and Markets
“Historically, investors overestimate the impact of political parties, Presidents, and legislation. Even if one was to correctly forecast a political outcome, markets seldom react in…
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When the Fed Pivots
“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” – Mark Twain There have been 85 cycles where the Fed has increased interest rates since…
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Silver Linings in a Dismal Year
“It’s not just good news that causes bear markets to end, but better-than-expected news that is simply less bad.” – Ben Carlson, Wealth of Common…
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Surprised by Surprises
“The correct lesson to learn from surprises is that the world is surprising.” – Morgan Housel, The Collaborative Fund Unprecedented. Extraordinary. Unexpected. Once in a…
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Year of the 180
“Most investors tend to project near-term trends – both favorable and adverse indefinitely into the future.” – Seth Klarman, famous investor Let’s go back to…
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The Market Could Be Wrong About Inflation
“I don’t mind going back to daylight savings time. With inflation, the hour will be the only thing I’ve saved all year.” – Victor Borge,…
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