If we tracked the most commonly asked client question over the past six months, a variation of “when is the next big recession coming?” would…
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Predicting the Next Recession
Does it Still Make Sense to Own Bonds?
“Bonds as an asset class will always be needed, not just by insurance companies and pension funds, but by aging boomers.” – Bill Gross, retired founder of PIMCO It’s an 800-pound gorilla. The biggest asset class in the world (and...
read moreThe Fed’s About-Face
Just a year ago, the consensus was for the Federal Reserve to methodically increase interest rates to “normal” levels. As of this writing (7/9/2019), the…
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So Much for Rising Rates
The cycle ended with hardly a peep, but it looks like the Fed is done increasing rates. Source: YCharts The above graph shows the initial…
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Don’t Be Afraid of the ‘R’ Word
“Fear, greed, and hope have destroyed more portfolio value than any recession or depression we have ever been through.” – Jim O’Shaughnessy, Financial Author &…
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Let’s Talk Yield Curve Inversion
Picture a veteran stock broker roaming the halls of a investment advisory firm. His shirt is stained with coffee. From the look of his wrinkled suit it…
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The Housing Cycle
“Housing is often found at the heart of financial crises”– Fed Chair, Jay Powell summer of 2017 We are not experts on residential housing by…
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The Mystic of Rising Interest Rates
“Nobody likes high interest rates.” – Chanda Kochhar, CEO of ICICI Bank Interest rate prognostications have taken on a life of their own. Like a…
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Tariff Gamesmanship?
On March 1, 2018 President Trump unexpectedly announced tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. The threat of a global trade war sent the S&P 500…
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Forget the Fed. Focus on Coordinated Global Tightening
2017 has been a great year for investors. Global equities are higher. Volatility is non-existent. Heck, even left-for-dead fixed income has posted positive returns. However,…
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